Looking ahead:
Manufacturing has led the economic comeback, but will it last?
When you look at the brightening economic picture, manufacturing has played a major role in the comeback. The biggest question facing the sector is simple: Will the good times last?
Robert Dye, vice president and senior economist for PNC Bank, says the odds are in favor of manufacturers, but there are still risks.
“It is my expectation that we continue to see strong growth but not as strong in the last year or so,” Dye says.
The overall recovery in the U.S. will eventually reach across all economic sectors, including service and construction.
“When I look at price conditions for manufacturers, I’m concerned about a profit squeeze as energy and higher commodity prices drive producer prices up,” he says. “Those prices will not be able to be passed through to the consumer at this point. Even though there are currently strong profits, there is potential for profit erosion down the road.”
Companies that make consumer goods should also see better times ahead.
“I do expect the consumer sector to show ongoing improvement through 2011, as we saw consumers bounce back in 2010, with strong retail sales and a strong holiday shopping season after three disappointing seasons in a row,” Dye says. “Measures of consumer confidence are improving and job creation should improve through 2011. Manufacturing sectors that will be able to take advantage of that will be the consumer-focused sector.”
There are also potential risks in the consumer sector, as well: Foreign debt woes could increase the value of the dollar, hurting exporters, unemployment is still high, and the housing market is still weak.
“We are still in uncertain times, and manufacturers will face cross currents in the year ahead, but most of the wind will be at their backs,” Dye says. “But the lingering risks are still with us.”
How to hire in 2011
While most manufacturers are seeing things on the upward swing, hiring can still be a difficult decision as you continue lean operations. Likely, you’re down to a core group of people who you trust and can rely on to do a good job, so if you have a good core and you want to hire, you have to take an approach that most manufacturers have never taken.
“If they do have to hire, it will be slowly — one or two at a time — and they’re not looking at the skill base they have, but how do they fit in with the rest of the people,” says Chuck Hadden, president and CEO of the Michigan Manufacturers’ Association. “Can they work as a team? Is it someone everyone else will get along with? Those are all crucial things they’re thinking about beyond can the guy or the woman do the job.”
Hadden says you have to take more time in your hiring now if you want to be successful.
“Your HR person does the interviewing, but maybe you include a couple people from the floor, and they sit in on a couple [interviews] and listen to them,” Hadden says. “It used to be, when I was growing up, somebody’s grandfather or uncle would get them a job in the place and they’d take off. It doesn’t work that way anymore.”
He says to make sure you look for people who are willing to learn and want to continue to learn through technical school, additional training or whatever the company may call for.
Jim Nicholson, vice president of chemical manufacturer PVS Chemicals Inc., says you also have to trust your managers to make good hires.
“The key on the hiring process is to have confidence that your managers can hire well,” Nicholson says. “Spend time and effort training your managers on how to hire well, and make sure your managers spend enough time on the process and have choices and present choices, so that they can get input from their fellow managers and hire the best person for that role.”
Doing these things will help you as you look to add bodies in 2011 and the years to come.
