At one point, it seemed everyone had a little black box clipped to their belt.
But beepers are disappearing, replaced by wireless phones that carry many of the same features in a slightly larger package. So is the beeping box history?
Not quite. In fact, it has a fairly promising future, albeit in a somewhat modified form.
“The paging industry has two main assets, a local distribution network of radio frequencies with a backbone terrestrial distribution network; and a channel for distributing pagers to people,” says Mark Plakias, director of voice and wireless commerce for The Kelsey Group, an industry research firm. “The backbone distribution network is becoming IP-based, and therefore is able to evolve into a wireless data infrastructure. This gives it a place in the merging wireless data world.”
The distribution channels at the retail level give it a basis for distributing new handheld devices that are capable of receiving content that originates on the Web and is filtered for distribution to one-way and two-way pagers. Web giant AOL obviously thinks there is some future, because it has announced a major initiative to sell AOL-branded pagers for receiving its personalized content and messaging services.
Backlash against cell phones lends some advantage to pagers, but it’s not an overwhelming one.
“The earache that is cellular is not shared by pager users,” says Plakias. “We see the two as highly complementary, with two-way pagers equipped with small keyboards being the preferred — and discreet — way to send near-realtime messages without annoying your neighbor. However, there are hands-free environments where pagers must take a back seat to the cell phone.”
The hybrid phones that encompass some of the same functions as a pager hurt the industry in some ways, but there are many factors involved. Mobile messaging is a highly segmented market; there are certain people with certain device propensities and situations who favor handsets, pagers or PDAs.
“Network connectivity is one aspect of the issue, and more fundamentally, addressing is another,” says Plakias. “Most wireless Web users do not know their phone’s e-mail address. Pagers have a universally understood addressing scheme.
“Wireless data networks, such as Weblink Wireless or the generic CDPD network used by Palm, are spotty in terms of coverage.”
It’s not just about the device, but the network coverage for messaging that comes with it.
And what about the lowly, one-way beeping box that created the mobile-messaging craze — does it have any future in a high-tech world?
“I believe so, but increasingly, it will be restricted to controlled, highly structured environments — hospitals, security guards in large structures, etc.,” says Plakias. “In these instances, the application is a simple notification, a call to action. With so many options available, the number of instances where a simple beep will suffice is dwindling.
“Even Manhattan bike messengers have sophisticated two-way radios these days.”
How to reach: The Kelsey Group, www.kelseygroup.com
Todd Shryock ([email protected]) is SBN’s special reports editor.